You tops the Nielsens with Season 3

You tops the Nielsens as Locke & Key only manages #4

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You tops the latest Nielsens as the third season of this Netflix series pushes Squid Game into second — we look behind the numbers

As we predicted last week, it’s a swap at the top of the Nielsens. Before we take a look at the numbers, here’s what we actually predicted:

If You follows the pattern (which Maid didn’t), it could easily make well over 2 billion minutes (perhaps even over 2.6). We see Squid Game dropping to around 1.5 billion, with Maid perhaps dipping under the billion minutes. This makes You our tip for the top.

We’re quite pleased with our predictions, so this week we’re using a crystal ball to see into the future and form our prediction. At the moment it’s stuck on a tall dark man, a trip overseas, romance and money, but once we get over that hurdle, we’re sure the results will be useful (or perhaps it’s a convoluted clue to the next big ratings winner.) If you read through to the end, there’s some bonus news from the world of ratings as well.

The Nielsen data for October 18-24

Here’s the published data (US only and don’t forget it’s a few weeks ago) with our additions in columns marked ‘*’.

Rank Streamer Series #Episodes Ep length (mins)* Total Minutes (Millions) Episode Watches*
1 Netflix You 30 45 2,254 50,088,889
2 Netflix Squid Game 9 60 1,938 32,300,000
3 Netflix Maid (2021) 10 55 1,474 26,800,000
4 Netflix Locke & Key 20 50 519 10,380,000
5 Netflix The Great British Baking Show 70 75 445 5,933,333
6 Hulu Only Murders In The Building 10 30 357 11,900,000
7 Netflix Another Life 20 40 352 8,800,000
8 Netflix Midnight Mass 7 65 317 4,876,923
9 Apple TV+ Ted Lasso 22 30 311 10,366,667
10 Netflix My Name 8 50 307 6,140,000


You tops the chart (as predicted)

It might not have reached 2.6 billion, but You did easily break through 2 billion as it tops the charts. Squid Game did drop but still attracted a massive audience, and Maid hit the exact same total as last week. It supports our standard shape model (ie big shows rise then fall when released in big blocks).

What else happened?

Locke & Key season 2 arrived on Netflix and gained a respectable number of minutes. One reason new shows rise in week 2 is Netflix tends to release Friday, so only part of the week gets viewers when a season / film is released, so should always rise on week 2. Midnight Mass drifted down, but might get a Halloween bump. Another Life season 2 arrived and a few familiar faces remain from the past few weeks.

What do we predict for next week?

If we extrapolate numbers, we’d expect:

You to drop back some distance to around 1,400 ± 250

Squid Game to hold around 1,700 ± 250

Maid to get around 1,000 ± 200

This all suggests Squid Game could go back to the top. It’s going to be interesting to find out.

As an educated guess, Locke & Keys should get around 900 ± 150.

We haven’t checked what else is released, and the week ends with Halloween, so Midnight Mass might even rise. Whatever happens, we’ll be back with our unique take on the table.

Bonus content

And if you’ve read this far, you might want to know Netflix is giving us regular Top 10s for film and TV in both English and non-English. It’s more recent data than the Nielsens, and the new website is worth looking at. At the time of launch, it’s all about Red Notice.