Locke & Key overtakes Squid Game for the top of the latest Nielsens, but You is still holding on strong to the top spot
After a delay for Thanksgiving, we’ve the Nielsen data for the week 25-31 October. The top four consists of the same shows as last time, but the order has changed. Here’s what we predicted would happen:
If we extrapolate numbers, we’d expect:
You to drop back some distance to around 1,400 ± 250
Squid Game to hold around 1,700 ± 250
Maid to get around 1,000 ± 200
This all suggests Squid Game could go back to the top. It’s going to be interesting to find out.
As an educated guess, Locke & Key should get around 900 ± 150.
While we got some of the numbers right, we overestimated Squid Game by a long way, and our range for Maid was too generous as well. We will be fine tuning out algorithm before we unleash it on the Euro millions.
With the delays to the data last week, our team of crack number magicians are all off doing some early Christmas shopping, so we’ve borrowed the famous Cultbox bingo number machine to generate random numbers for our Monte Carlo analysis. Normal service will be resumed next time.
The Nielsen data for 25-31 October
This is US only, we add the columns marked ‘*’.
| Rank | Streamer | Series | #Episodes | Ep length (mins)* | Total Minutes (Millions) | Episode Watches* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Netflix | You | 30 | 45 | 1,551 | 34,466,667 |
| 2 | Netflix | Locke & Key | 20 | 50 | 1,068 | 21,360,000 |
| 3 | Netflix | Squid Game | 9 | 60 | 1,020 | 17,000,000 |
| 4 | Netflix | Maid (2021) | 10 | 55 | 718 | 13,054,545 |
| 5 | Netflix | Maya And The Three | 9 | 30 | 481 | 16,033,333 |
| 6 | Netflix | The Great British Baking Show | 71 | 75 | 444 | 5,920,000 |
| 7 | Netflix | Inside Job | 10 | 27 | 277 | 10,259,259 |
| 8 | Apple TV+ | Ted Lasso | 22 | 30 | 275 | 9,166,667 |
| 9 | Netflix | Midnight Mass | 7 | 65 | 268 | 4,123,077 |
| 10 | Netflix | Gabby’s Dollhouse | 25 | 25 | 241 | 9,640,000 |
Locke & Key overtakes Squid Game
As we’ve noted before, a lot of shows get a week 2 boost in viewing, not only from word of mouth, but also as Netflix (in particular) releases shows on Friday, so they don’t get a full 7 days figures in week 1. You, meanwhile, is quite happy at the top of the table.
What else happened?
Squid Game is still hard to predict, but falling. Maid seems to have already peaked, and a lot of the new shows are for younger audiences or animated. No Halloween boost for Midnight Mass.
What do we predict for next week?
We extrapolate:
You will reach 800±150
Locke & Key 750±100
Squid Game also 750±100
It’s tight so we suggest Locke & Key will displace You into second. It feels like there’s room for a big new entry, but we can’t name one from the usual sci-fi suspects.
Whatever does happen, we’ll be back with out unique insight.