On debut, Maid reaches a vast total of minutes viewed, but it’s not enough to stop Squid Game
The Nielsen data for the week 4-10 October are out, and the numbers are enormous, for both Squid Game and new entrant Maid. Before we dive in, let’s look at our predictions from last week:
If Squid Game follows a normal trajectory, it should dip to around 2 billion minutes. It will easily top the chart and we see it higher than that. Could it manage higher than the vast number reached for this week?
Lucifer will drop to around 425, Midnight Mass drop back to around 750. We’d like to see Bake Off in the top half, and see the bottom titles all drifting out
Apart from not allowing for the new entrant at #2, we were sort of ballpark with some of out numbers. This week the team have snuck off to watch Eternals on an overnight showing, so we’ve dusted off an old copy of Whittaker’s Almanac from 1921 and are using the tide tables to generate our predictions. If nobody notices we may just leave the analysis in the Cultbox cinema suite indefinitely.
The Nielsen data
As ever we use the published data for US viewing and remember it’s from a few weeks ago (the data is collated and audited, hence the delay). We add the columns marked ‘*’.
| Rank | Streamer | Series | # Episodes | Ep length (mins)* | Total Minutes (Millions) | Episode Watches* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Netflix | Squid Game | 9 | 60 | 3,021 | 50,350,000 |
| 2 | Netflix | Maid (2021) | 10 | 55 | 1,904 | 34,618,182 |
| 3 | Netflix | On My Block | 38 | 30 | 776 | 25,866,667 |
| 4 | Netflix | Midnight Mass | 7 | 65 | 707 | 10,876,923 |
| 5 | Apple TV+ | Ted Lasso | 22 | 30 | 507 | 16,900,000 |
| 6 | Netflix | The Great British Baking Show | 68 | 75 | 505 | 6,733,333 |
| 7 | Netflix | Dave Chappelle: The Closer | 1 | 72 | 399 | 5,541,667 |
| 8 | Netflix | Lucifer | 93 | 50 | 359 | 7,180,000 |
| 9 | Netflix | Sex Education | 24 | 50 | 283 | 5,660,000 |
| 10 | Hulu | Only Murders In The Building | 8 | 30 | 248 | 8,266,667 |
Maid does well on debut, but can’t shake Squid Game from #1
With nearly two billion minutes, the production team behind Maid should be both proud yet frustrated, though Squid Game is following its own rules. There is a slight dip from last time, but far less than usually seen.
What else happened?
With so much viewing for just two shows, the rest of the table seems cramped. On My Block is overlooked at #3 and Midnight Mass is holding in the top four. As we suggested, Bake Off shows well and Lucifer is fading faster than we predicted. The other new entrant, Dave Chappelle: The Closer has generated a lot of attention in the press, and this may ultimately lead to showing well for a few weeks, even rising on the back of controversy.
What do we predict for next week?
It’s hard to call the top 2, but we’ll suggest Maid to make #1 at around 2.5 billion, with Squid Game just under. We’ve a margin of error that reverses the order, and Squid Game just follows its own rules. On My Block should last a few weeks, Bake Off hover and Dave Chappelle may pick up some views. Midnight Mass might drift down a few places to around 500 million.
Whatever happens, we’ll bring you our thoughts next time.