Squid Game exceeds our already high expectations in the latest Nielsen ratings
We expected Squid Game to top the Nielsens for 27 September – 3 October, but little did we know how far it would exceed out predictions. Here’s what we said last week:
Starting with the easier end of the table, Squid Game should dominate for some weeks, and we see it comfortably breaking 2 billion minutes (which Outer Banks did in its week 2). Lucifer will fall away to around 450-500, Sex Education should stay firm and we expect Ted Lasso to improve…
We give ourselves 6, maybe 7 out of 10 for accuracy, so this week we’ve used the same system used to make the Women’s Euro 22 draw in forecasting next week. If you read to the end (don’t skip), we’ve some relevant news about Apple TV+.
First let’s look at the data.
The Nielsen data
As ever this is historic and US only. We add the columns marked ‘*’.
| Rank | Streamer | Series | # Episodes | Ep length (mins)* | Total Minutes (Millions) | Episode Watches* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Netflix | Squid Game | 9 | 60 | 3,260 | 54,333,333 |
| 2 | Netflix | Midnight Mass | 7 | 65 | 1,171 | 18,015,385 |
| 3 | Netflix | Lucifer | 93 | 50 | 536 | 10,720,000 |
| 4 | Netflix | The Great British Baking Show | 67 | 75 | 534 | 7,120,000 |
| 5 | Netflix | Sex Education | 24 | 50 | 469 | 9,380,000 |
| 6 | Apple TV+ | Ted Lasso | 21 | 30 | 455 | 15,166,667 |
| 7 | Amazon | Goliath | 32 | 55 | 359 | 6,527,273 |
| 8 | Netflix | The Circle | 37 | 55 | 266 | 4,836,364 |
| 9 | Hulu | Only Murders In The Building | 7 | 30 | 263 | 8,766,667 |
| 10 | Disney+ | What If…? | 8 | 30 | 223 | 7,433,333 |
Squid Game exceeds our projection
We thought we were bullish at 2 billion minutes, little did we know. In the months we’ve been tracking, this is vastly higher than any other total reached. Squid Game has captured the imagination / zeitgeist / gone viral… let’s face it, it’s been everywhere, hailed as the saviour of Netflix and breaking records held by Bridgerton.
Will it go higher? See what we predict below.
What else happened?
We were close on Lucifer and Ted Lasso, over-egged Sex Education, and mis-judged Midnight Mass. What If…? sneaked back in the bottom of the chart and Goliath is the only new entry. The Us Bake Off rose though.
What do we predict for next week?
If Squid Game follows a normal trajectory, it should dip to around 2 billion minutes. It will easily top the chart and we see it higher than that. Could it manage higher than the vast number reached for this week?
Lucifer will drop to around 425, Midnight Mass drop back to around 750. We’d like to see Bake Off in the top half, and see the bottom titles all drifting out. Whatever happens, we’ll bring you our unique take.
Bonus news — Apple TV+ deal with Comcast
We predict higher figures for Apple TV+ shows in the future, thanks to a new arrangement with Comcast. Reported on The Hollywood Reporter, Apple TV+ is coming to ComCast devices; in the UK this means Sky. The service is due to arrive mid-2022. We look forward to seeing how this develops.